Primary market (new buildings): As of summer 2025, prices for new housing remain high, especially in relatively safe regions. For example, the average cost per square meter in new buildings in Lviv is about $1,330/m², which is even slightly higher than in Kyiv (~$1,280/m²). By comparison, in western regional centers such as Uzhhorod, prices are around $1,150/m², while in frontline cities, they are significantly lower (for example, in Kharkiv, only ~$670/m²). As a result of the full-scale war, western regions have become the most expensive: since the beginning of the war, prices there have increased by tens of percent (specifically, compared to March 2021, new buildings have increased ~66% in Lviv and 98% in Ivano-Frankivsk). In the capital, prices remain at pre-war high levels, but the pace of their growth has somewhat slowed due to a decrease in purchasing power demand. For national reference: according to OLX, the average price of an apartment in a new building across Ukraine at the end of 2024 was ~2.3 million UAH, while a private house (in rural areas) was around 2.6 million UAH. According to GIS "Uvecon", the average price of a private house in the country at the beginning of 2025 was ~$729 per m² (≈30.5 thousand UAH), which is 7.5% more in dollars (+16.7% in hryvnias) compared to last year. This indicates that even the segment of individual houses is showing an increase in value despite the war.

Secondary market (ready housing): In the resale housing market, prices are also gradually increasing, but more restrained. Kyiv remains the most expensive: the average cost of a one-room apartment in the capital is now about $60–63 thousand (≈2.2–2.3 million UAH). Meanwhile, in Lviv, similar housing is already priced higher – about $65 thousand for a one-room apartment, which is about ~5% more than last year. Thus, Lviv has effectively caught up with and surpassed the capital in prices for small-size housing, reflecting high demand in a relatively safe region. For other western cities, typical prices in the secondary market are lower (for example, in Ivano-Frankivsk ~$38 thousand for a one-room), but they still significantly increased from pre-war levels. In central regions (Dnipro, Odesa, etc.), prices remain at an average level: for instance, a one-room apartment in Odesa is ~$40 thousand, in Dnipro – $33 thousand. The east and south of Ukraine, on the contrary, remain the cheapest due to the proximity of hostilities: in the frontline city of Kharkiv, a one-room apartment can be bought for ~$20–21 thousand (about 750 thousand UAH), which is 10–11% cheaper than a year ago. In occupied and frontline territories, the market is practically paralyzed – deals are hardly made, and asking prices have significantly dropped to historical minima.

Price dynamics over the last 12 months

Over the past year (summer 2024 – summer 2025), residential real estate in Ukraine has nominally increased in price, although the real growth (considering inflation) has been moderate. According to official data from the State Statistics Service, in the IV quarter of 2024, housing prices increased by ~15.7% year on year in the primary market and by ~11.9% in the secondary market. Since inflation at the end of 2024 was about 12%, the real price increase for new buildings was only ~3% (above the inflation level), while the secondary market effectively stagnated in real terms (almost 0% adjusted for inflation). A similar picture was observed in early 2025: according to OLX, the average price of an apartment in a new building increased by 8.5% from the beginning of 2024 to the end of autumn, while in the secondary market, it rose by 4.4%.

The war caused regional polarization in the market: prices in western and partially central regions rose significantly, while in frontline regions they fell or stagnated. According to the LUN portal, in the first half of 2024, western regions became the leaders in price growth: for example, in Rivne, the average price for new buildings jumped by +8% over 6 months (to ~$920/m²), in Uzhhorod – by +6% (to ~$1,170/m²). A similar increase was also noted in Central Ukraine (Cherkasy +6% etc.). Conversely, in dangerous regions, a decrease was noted: Zaporizhzhia showed –15% during the same period, Kropyvnytskyi –10%, Kharkiv –4%. In the secondary market, trends are similar: for example, apartments in Rivne increased in price by approximately +14% over the year, while in Lviv they saw an increase of 5%, and in Uzhhorod and Ivano-Frankivsk – about 3%. In frontline areas, secondary housing decreased in price at approximately the same rates as new builds. As a result, as noted by a specialized publication, the war has reshaped the price map: we now have “expensive West and cheap East”, with apartment prices in the east of the country having fallen to levels not seen even before the war.

The structure of demand has also noticeably changed. Although the overall transaction volume is still far from pre-war levels (the number of purchase and sale transactions in 2024 was ~45% lower than in 2021), the market is gradually reviving. In 2024, the number of residential transactions increased by 3.3% compared to 2023, with demand especially picking up in the second half of the year. Kyiv and its region remain the most active (a total of ~48 thousand transactions in 2024, +6% year on year). Western regions (such as Lviv region) also had significant sales volumes, although in some places the number of transactions even decreased compared to 2023 – this may be explained by a shortage of supply or seller expectations. In contrast, in the eastern and southern regions, activity is minimal; the market there is effectively “frozen” due to wartime risks.

Key factors influencing the market in 2025

• Military factor and migration. The safety situation remains a determining factor for the housing market. The full-scale war has caused massive population displacements: millions of people have left the country or relocated from frontline regions to western Ukraine. This supports high demand in relatively safe regions (Lviv region, Zakarpattia, parts of central regions), pushing prices upwards there. At the same time, eastern and southern markets remain practically “frozen” – buyers are hesitant to invest in housing in areas under shelling, while developers have massively suspended projects in dangerous zones. As a result, investment activity and money are concentrated mainly in the more peaceful parts of the country. This territorial dualism is vividly reflected in prices: “the safety factor drives up housing prices where shelling is irregular and air defense works effectively; in frontline cities – the opposite trend.” Thus, the market now features expensive West + Kyiv and cheap East + South. Going forward, the situation will depend on the course of the war: if the intensity of shelling decreases and the frontline stabilizes or recedes – this will add optimism to buyers and may revive the market in previously dangerous territories. However, as of 2025, buyers still primarily choose locations where they feel safe. Moreover, external migration (the departure of Ukrainians abroad) also impacts: many property owners who temporarily or permanently settled outside of Ukraine are putting their apartments up for sale or renting them out. According to analysts, in Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and other major cities outside the combat zone, the supply in the secondary market has partly increased due to owners who did not return to the country. This somewhat restrains price growth in central cities, unlike in the west, where demand exceeds supply (since most of the population has stayed and has long-term plans in place).

• Inflation and the hryvnia exchange rate. High inflation in the country automatically raises the cost of real estate. In 2024, inflation was about 12%, which significantly increased the cost of building materials, labor, and logistics. Experts estimate that prices for essential building materials have risen by 35–45% compared to pre-war levels – these costs are factored into the price per square meter. The cost of labor has also increased due to mobilization and migration, causing the construction industry to experience a labor shortage, resulting in significantly higher wages for builders. Another factor is the devaluation of the hryvnia. Although the official NBU exchange rate has been fixed for a long time, it experienced adjustment in 2023–2024: back in summer 2022, the rate was raised to 36.6 UAH/$, and subsequently, the hryvnia gradually weakened on the cash market (by mid-2025, the dollar costs ~41 UAH). The 2025 state budget has set an average exchange rate of 45 UAH/$, meaning the authorities expect further devaluation. This has a direct effect on the housing market, as prices in the primary market are traditionally tied to the dollar. Developers often price apartments in USD equivalents, so with the devaluation of the hryvnia, they raise prices in hryvnias. This indeed happened in 2024: the official dollar rate was raised, leading to an average price increase across the country in hryvnias of 16–17% with a 7–8% increase in dollars. Thus, the devaluation of the hryvnia is one of the main drivers of increasing housing prices, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025. If the exchange rate indeed reaches ~45 UAH/$, this alone will add approximately ~10–15% to prices in hryvnias (without accounting for other factors).

• Supply and construction activity. Limited supply of new housing is another factor supporting prices. Due to the war, many constructions were halted or postponed, especially in high-risk areas. Developers are facing enormous difficulties: high production costs, interruptions in supply of materials, lack of financing and labor. Many projects have been frozen – particularly in the east and south of the country, the construction of new phases has effectively stoppedr. According to experts, developers often cannot complete ongoing projects in dangerous regions, leading to a lack of new supply there. Conversely, in relatively calm areas, construction is gradually resuming. Statistics indicate some revival: in 2024, 6.73 million m² of housing were commissioned in Ukraine, which is +23.5% more than in 2023. However, compared to the pre-war 2021 (almost 9 million m²), this is still noticeably lower. The geography of construction is also changing – nearly 39% of all new square meters commissioned in 2024 are in the western regions (in 2021, their share was ~32%). Thus, developers are actively shifting their activities to the safer West, responding to the high demand there. In central regions (particularly Kyiv region), many constructions are also underway, although the pace depends on the economic situation. According to analysts at DIM.RIA, as of May 2025, about 77% of new construction sales departments across the country have resumed operations and are selling apartments. New projects are being cautiously launched: in May 2025, only 4 new buildings (5 sections) were commissioned in Ukraine – two in Lviv region, one in Kyiv, and one in Zakarpattia. The highest percentage of completed new buildings is currently in relatively quiet regions (for example, Rivne – 62% of all projects completed). Limited supply of housing amidst relatively stable demand creates a basis for price growth. Where the number of sellers is low, buyers have to compete for available options. In many cities, there is already a noticeable shortage of ready-to-move-in housing – this segment experiences the highest demand in times of instability. Thus, in 2025, the shortage of new apartments (especially in completed buildings) will remain relevant until large-scale reconstruction programs are launched and investment in construction comes after the war.

• Mortgage programs and state support. Against the backdrop of high credit costs and decreasing incomes, state mortgage programs play a significant role in supporting demand. The main driver is the “eOselya” program, which launched at the end of 2022 and offers certain categories of citizens (military, IDPs, healthcare workers, teachers, etc.) mortgages at a preferential interest rate (3–7% per annum). Through government compensation for part of the rates, this program has allowed thousands of families to obtain loans even amid high market rates. According to experts, in 2024, over 8.5 thousand families benefited from the “eOselya” program, obtaining a total of over 14.6 billion UAH in loans. In the state budget for 2024–2025, funding for the program has been expanded – this year, the government has allocated another 20 billion UAH, so the number of those wishing to purchase housing with state support is expected to increase. Analysts note that “eOselya” has revitalized the secondary housing market even under conditions of high credit costs, as many transactions are made under this program. In 2025, the expansion of “eOselya” to new categories of borrowers is planned, further enhancing demand (primarily in the primary market, as a significant part of the loans is directed towards purchasing new apartments from developers). Additionally, the state is launching compensation programs for lost housing: at the end of 2024, the Verkhovna Rada passed a law on paying compensation to IDPs for destroyed property. It is anticipated that priority assistance will be given to the most vulnerable categories of displaced persons (pensioners, families with young children, etc.). This mechanism is just beginning to operate, but potentially in 2025–2026, such compensations might partly translate into new housing demand (people will receive funds or certificates and will buy apartments in safe regions instead of lost homes). It is also worth mentioning the “eV відновлення” program (payments for repairing damaged housing) and international reconstruction funds – they currently have limited scope but will also impact the market in the future, stimulating reconstruction and construction. Overall, state support currently partly compensates for negative factors and stimulates delayed demand among those who would not have dared to buy housing during wartime without such assistance.

• Taxes and regulation. Since the beginning of 2025, some tax conditions have changed, which is also reflected in the real estate market. In particular, taxation of purchase and sale transactions has increased: the military tax rate on the sale of housing has increased from 1.5% to 5%, and together with other fees, the seller now pays about 12% in taxes when transferring an object (under certain conditions). This sharp increase in fiscal burden forces sellers to either embed taxes in the price or negotiate to avoid deterring buyers with overly high housing costs. Additionally, state duty and notary fees for transaction processing have increased, as has the annual property tax (linked to the minimum wage) – in 2025, the minimum wage was raised, so apartment owners will pay more tax for “extra” meters. All of this somewhat complicates the situation for sellers, especially those who have owned property for less than 3 years (for them, a 5% personal income tax applies). The market is also influenced by regulatory innovations: for instance, to combat fraud, the government in 2023–2024 introduced temporary bans on the sale of property in occupied territories and tightened requirements for developers, etc. All of this creates new realities to which market participants must adapt. In the short term, the increase in taxes may slightly reduce supply (some sellers are delaying sales, waiting for softer conditions) or stimulate alternative transfer schemes (for example, registering donations instead of purchases – by the way, in 2024, the number of donation agreements for apartments skyrocketed by +97%, which may be related to tax optimization). Overall, economic challenges and new rules of the game (taxes, wartime restrictions) have not stopped the market, but they do influence price dynamics and the behavior of sellers/buyers in 2025.

Price forecasts and experts' expectations (by August 2025)

Most analysts agree that in 2025, housing in Ukraine will continue to increase in price, especially if the security situation gradually improves. Forecast estimates vary in detail but share a similar direction: an increase in value in both the primary and secondary markets. Here are the key forecasts from market participants and experts:

• Developers (primary market): The construction company Gazda expects that in 2025, new building prices will rise by at least 20% (on average across the country). Moreover, in the “most promising” projects – that is, in small-sized housing ready for occupancy in safe areas – prices may increase by 25–30% within a year. This optimistic scenario is based on the assumption of relative stability at the front and high demand from displaced persons and investors. Another large company, Perfect Group, offers a more restrained forecast for the capital: according to their estimates, by the end of 2024, primary housing prices in Kyiv will grow by 5–10%, and by mid-2025, the price per m² of new housing in the capital will reach about 65 thousand UAH (currently ~52.5 thousand UAH/m²). Thus, over the year and a half, growth could amount to approximately 20–25% in hryvnias. Overall, across the country, developers expect continued moderate price increases amid costly construction costs and currency fluctuations. It is worth noting that these forecasts hold true on the condition that no new major shocks occur (escalation of the war, mass blackouts, etc.). For example, experts warn: if mass power outages resume, demand in the primary market may temporarily fall by as much as –50%, which would also slow price growth.

• Banks and consulting portals: Analysts from online real estate platforms are also optimistic about price increases. Experts from the OLX Real Estate portal predict that in 2025, housing will continue to rise in price. They cite several reasons: the expansion of the “eOselya” program (more buyers will gain access to mortgages), the rise in the dollar exchange rate, further increases in building materials and labor costs, and possible tax hikes on real estate transactions. Other institutions share similar views. In particular, market analysts interviewed by TSN consider 10–15% price increases throughout 2025 to be realistic. This forecast can be considered a conservative scenario: double-digit price growth is expected primarily due to inflationary and currency factors (materials are getting more expensive, the hryvnia is weakening), but without a frenzy in demand. Key factors they note coincide with those mentioned above: inflation, the hryvnia exchange rate, and rising transaction costs. Thus, under the basic scenario, housing prices may increase approximately at the level of inflation or slightly above.

• Independent experts and realtors: Some specialists express even bolder estimates. For instance, the founder of the consulting platform Winboss, Olena Yalnyk, predicts that in the average across the country, 2025 will bring price increases of +25%. In her opinion, the main driver will be massive financing of preferential mortgages: the government is injecting funds into “eOselya”, which drastically increases the number of buyers in the primary market. This scenario can be conditionally called optimistic, as it assumes that significant delayed demand will be realized thanks to accessible loans. The expert also notes that current demand is concentrated in the capital and the west, but if wartime risks decrease, the situation might change: buyers will actively return to large eastern regional centers (Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia). In other words, if by August 2025 the security situation significantly improves (a cessation of hostilities or successes of the Armed Forces), demand may increase significantly and spread more evenly across the country, potentially causing a sharp increase in prices in the currently depressed regions. However, for now, this is a hypothetical scenario – as of mid-2025, the market continues to exhibit “two-speed” dynamics, and until the situation stabilizes, eastern regions are unlikely to see significant price increases (especially since large portions of housing there have been destroyed or are within shelling reach).

Differentiation by regions: Nearly all forecasts point to the continuation of the trend “expensive safe region – cheap dangerous zone” at least until the end of summer 2025. Hence, the most significant price increases are expected in relatively calm cities: in Kyiv, Lviv, Uzhhorod, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Volyn, and Zakarpattia – everywhere people have relocated, and the economy is functioning relatively normally. For example, as of now, the top regions by price are: Kyiv (~$1380/m²), Kyiv region (~$1020/m²), Odesa (~$850/m²), Zakarpattia (~$835/m²). These regions have also recorded the highest price increases in 2023–2024 (Zakarpattia +22.7% year-on-year, Vinnytsia +26.6% etc.). Lviv retains its lead in the average price of new buildings and among the highest prices in the secondary market – thus, in 2025, continued (although gradual) price growth is expected there, potentially in the range of 5–10% over half a year. After a certain stagnation, Kyiv also shows a recovery in demand, making the projected +5–10% by the end of the year seem achievable. Secondary regional centers in the west and center (Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, etc.) saw price increases of 5–10% in 2024, and this trend is likely to continue (in the absence of shocks) within ~+10% per year. In contrast, frontline cities are unlikely to see significant price increases until peace can be guaranteed. Here, only localized decreases (by several percentage points) may occur due to population outflow and lack of purchasing power. For instance, forecasts do not indicate significant price growth in Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia by the end of summer – their market is on “pause” until the security situation improves. However, in the event of positive changes (restoration of territories, long-term ceasefire), a sudden spike in delayed demand might be expected, leading to rapid price equalization in these cities to the national level.

Conclusion: In summary, as of August 2025, the forecast for the Ukrainian residential real estate market is moderately optimistic. Despite all the war challenges, the market demonstrates adaptability: prices will continue to grow in both the primary and secondary segments, predicted at 10–20% per year (on average). The primary market may grow somewhat more (especially in dollar terms), while the secondary market might increase slightly less, yet still in the positive range. Key drivers of this trend include inflation and devaluation, supply shortages, and unsatisfied demand in safe regions, as well as mortgage incentives from the state. Geographically, the picture will remain uneven: western cities and the capital will have the highest prices and further growth, while frontline regions will remain in a state of low activity with minimal price changes. Risks that could impact the forecast include potential new strikes on infrastructure and political or economic shocks, but in the absence of such emergencies, the recovery trend in the market will continue. 2025 is seen by many as a period of “opportunities for recovery and growth” for Ukrainian real estate – and even if the post-war construction boom is still ahead, by the end of summer 2025 we expect to see gradual price increases and a revival of market activity on the path to fuller sector recovery.

Sources:

• GIS "Uvecon". State of the housing market in Q1 2025 (25.04.2025)gisuvecon.comgisuvecon.comgisuvecon.com

• Global Property Guide: Ukraine’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 (14.04.2025)globalpropertyguide.comglobalpropertyguide.com

• Ukraine Open For Business / DIM.RIA: Real estate market review in May 2025 (07.06.2025)open4business.com.uaopen4business.com.ua

• Other statistical and analytical data from LUN, OLX, the Ministry of Justice, cited in specialized media globalpropertyguide.comglobalpropertyguide.com and real estate market reportsgisuvecon.comgisuvecon.com.